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Bayes's Theorem$
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Richard Swinburne

Print publication date: 2005

Print ISBN-13: 9780197263419

Published to British Academy Scholarship Online: January 2012

DOI: 10.5871/bacad/9780197263419.001.0001

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Propensities May Satisfy Bayes’s Theorem

Propensities May Satisfy Bayes’s Theorem

(p.110) (p.111) 6 Propensities May Satisfy Bayes’s Theorem
Bayes's Theorem

David Miller

British Academy

This chapter discusses the question of whether the propensity interpretation of probability is a genuine interpretation of the calculus of probability. One of the main points of interest can be found in the difficulty of understanding the term P(A\C), when the occurrence A is temporally or causally anterior to the occurrence C. The chapter is able to determine that an intelligible interpretation of the calculus of probability as a calculus of propensities exists. Although it is not obviously a correct interpretation, it is a factual matter whether propensities obey the calculus of probability.

Keywords:   interpretation of probability, calculus of probability, calculus of propensities, interpretation, propensities

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