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Addressing Tipping Points for a Precarious Future$
Addressing Tipping Points for a Precarious Future

Timothy O'Riordan and Timothy Lenton

Print publication date: 2013

Print ISBN-13: 9780197265536

Published to British Academy Scholarship Online: January 2014

DOI: 10.5871/bacad/9780197265536.001.0001

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PRINTED FROM BRITISH ACADEMY SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.britishacademy.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright British Academy, 2020. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in BASO for personal use.date: 18 February 2020

(p.333) Index

(p.333) Index

Source:
Addressing Tipping Points for a Precarious Future
Publisher:
British Academy
abrupt basic change 178
accommodation 15, 306
accountability 184, 226, 227
Action Aid 78
adaptation xiv, 4, 7–8, 15, 241, 244, 283
adaptive cycle 15, 261–2, 271, 272
adaptive governance 8, 258–76
Amazon rainforest 137
community-based 282
creative 305
current thinking on 122
ecosystem-based 79
institutions 302
local initiatives 314
media coverage 250–1, 253, 254
private sector 239
response to early warning 39
restorative redirection 5
Adger, W.N. 261
adjustment 15, 16, 302
aerosols 38, 97, 303
Africa
climate change 251
ecosystem-based adaptation 79
IAASTD report 85
Sahel 26, 29, 110, 112, 258, 266–8, 270, 272
ageing 10, 227–8
agency 289
agriculture
Amazon region 133, 134–5, 136, 138, 139
biodiversity 79, 117, 121
deforestation 130
emissions 77–8
food security 90, 94–6, 97, 99
mechanized 138
albedo effects 109, 110, 111
algal blooms 30
Alliance of Religions and Conservation (ARC) 330
AMAZALERT project 265–6
Amazon rainforest 15, 32, 79–80, 110, 127–48, 259, 271–2
bifurcation approach 12
biodiversity loss 105
challenges for governance 135–40
challenges for science 140–2
dieback 26, 28, 33, 35, 112, 128–31, 258, 264–6
dry season 11
food products 118
future scenarios 306
impact on human well-being 115–16
transitions 131–5
Anglian Water 216–17
Anhang, J. 92
Annan, Kofi 194
anticipation 16
Aquinas, Thomas 154
‘Arab Spring’ (2011) 6–7, 226, 259, 277
Arabian Peninsula 118
Arctic sea-ice 25–7, 31, 32, 33–4, 35
Arima, E.Y. 135
Aristotle 53, 57, 326
Atkinson, David 48, 150, 165–7
Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) 26, 29, 32, 33
atmospheric brown cloud (ABC) 29–30
attitudes 7, 205, 288
attractors 6, 61
Australia
food security 85, 93, 94
Great Barrier Reef 261
media 250
Queensland flood 191
subtropical jet 34
vulnerability 109
autonomy 184
awareness 184, 253
Bahti, T. 57
Ban Ki-moon 194, 311
Bangladesh 250
banks 7, 220, 232, 241
Barlow, J. 141 (p.334)
Barnosky, A.D. 304–5
Barry, Mike 237–9, 313
Barthes, Roland 52n1, 59
Bean, Richard 253
Beckett, Samuel 285
Beddington, John 77, 78
Beetham, D. 309
behavioural economics 321, 322–4
belief 154, 155
belief–attitude–behaviour relationship 205
beneficence 182
‘benign catastrophes’ xii
‘benign’ tipping points 5, 167
leadership 207
markets 174
media coverage 253
political context 185
virtue 184
Berardi, G. 138
Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project 287
Bernoulli, D. 66
bifurcations 6–7, 10, 12, 15, 16, 24
ice melting 25
schematic representation of bifurcation point 36, 37
Big Society 214, 325
bio-cultural diversity 120–2
biodiversity 30, 78–9, 104–26
Amazon rainforest 138
bio-cultural diversity and resilience 117–22
boundaries 303
food-system activities 96, 97
human resilience 114–16
threats to 301
tipping points 108–16, 120
types, magnitudes and drivers of 106–8
biofuels 93, 94, 107
biome loss 26, 28–9
Black, M. 62
‘black’ markets 174
‘Black Swan’ thesis 74
bogs 111
Bolivia 127, 132
boreal forests 11, 32, 113
biodiversity change 109–12
dieback 26, 28, 33, 35
forest–climate feedback 111
Borlaug, Norman 85
bottom-up approach 34, 331
boundaries 301–4
Boyd, Emily 8, 13, 15, 18, 92, 95, 100, 241–2, 244, 255, 258–76, 316
Boyd Orr, John 86, 87
Boykoff, M. 250
Brazil
Amazon rainforest 79, 127–8, 132–3, 136, 138–40, 142, 271–2
civil society 325
drought 264–5
exchange rates 134
Forest Code 137
‘governing region’ concept 14
media 250
middle-class consumption 9–10
‘payment for ecosystem service’ scheme 138
Breakthrough Capitalism initiative 223–5, 228
Brito, L. 301
Broughton, Andrea 308
Brown, J.S. 185
Brown, Paul 9, 81, 242, 244, 277–9
Brundtland Report (1987) 135, 184
Buddhism 152, 311, 330
Business in The Community (BiTC) 217
business models 213, 217, 219, 226, 239
businesses see corporations
Cameron, David 196, 199, 214
Canada 28, 118, 325
capacity building 100, 136
capital 195, 197n6, 198–201, 202, 203
capitalism 170, 195, 207, 310, 329, 330
new logic for 197, 198–201, 211–12
Prospectus for Breakthrough Capitalism 228
socially responsive 314
sustainable 314
types of 196
carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions 210, 211, 303
agriculture-related 77–8
Amazon rainforest 112, 116, 127, 129, 130, 271
biodiversity change 114
Church of England campaign 167
coral reef acidification 114
Emissions Trading System 192–3
food wastage 96
worst case scenario 35
Yedoma permafrost 27
Carbon Mitigation Institute 210
carbon sequestration 138
CarbonTracker 226 (p.335)
causality 17, 292
Centrica 218
Čermák, F. 52n1
change xii, 6, 10, 76, 190, 212, 229, 243, 286
abrupt basic 178
adaptive cycle 261–2
adaptive governance 260
agents of 328, 332
Amazon region 131–5, 141, 143
biodiversity 104–26
complexity of global environment 281
cultural theory 73
disruptive innovation 237
exponential 235
fear of 153
managing 260
media 249–53, 255
openness to 156
private sector 218
roadmap for sustainable 223–8
see also social change
chaos 6, 61
chaos theory 10, 162
Chapin, F.S. 137
charities 214, 215, 216, 312
China
carbon dioxide emissions 193
economic power 191
endangered cultures 121
food demand 92
‘governing region’ concept 14
media 250
middle-class consumption 9–10
religious belonging 330
state-planning 192
Zero Discharge of Hazardous Chemical agenda 227
Christianity 150, 152, 166–7, 330
Christie, Ian 3–20, 313, 327–32
Church of England 167
circulation change 26, 29–30
citizenship 183–5, 186, 324–6, 328
civic engagement 185
civil society 193, 325, 331
Clark, Nigel 247
Clarke, Charles 170–1, 229–32, 316
Clarke, Keith 19, 170, 175, 220–2
Clegg, Nick 196, 199
climate change 191, 259, 287
abrupt 24
adaptation 15, 263
Amazon rainforest 112, 115, 116, 128–30, 142, 264
amplification of 25
biodiversity change 107–8, 114
biome loss 26, 28–9
boundaries 301–2, 303
circulation change 26, 29–30
Copenhagen Summit 250, 281
cultural politics of 244–9
deforestation 79
development and 282–4
early warning signs 36–8, 39
ecosystem-based adaptation 79
faith communities 167
food security 91, 92, 94, 95, 97
ice melting 16, 25–8, 33–5, 39, 277, 306
as leadership failure 201
markets 174, 220–1
media coverage 243–57, 277–9
Mumbai flood 268–9, 271
pests 11
regional effects 12
regulation 216, 320
responses to 75
risk assessment 31, 32–4
Sahel drought 266–7
threats to ecosystems 109
tundra 113
‘wicked problems’ xv
worst case scenario 34–5
coalitions 331–2
coastal areas 11, 109–12, 113, 268
Coetzee, J. 53, 54
cognitive dissonance 204
‘cognitive surplus’ 255
Colander, D. 178–9
Cold War 190
collaboration 214, 215, 216, 219, 239
collective rationality 287
Colombia 132
commodity trading 176
common good 186, 324
communication 251–2, 289–90, 293–5
communism 6–7, 197n6
community-based adaptation (CBA) 282
community food security 84
compassion 204
competition 170, 225, 226
complex adaptive systems 15, 262
complex adaptive thinking 290
complexity 49, 61–2, 262, 291–3
complexity economics 178–9
Concerned Citizens’ Commission (CCC) 269–70
conflict 116
congestion charges 320, 322
Connolly, William 254–5, 256 (p.336)
conservation
adaptive cycle 15, 261
agro-biodiversity 121
Amazon rainforest 271
market-based governance 192
consumption 181, 239
collaborative 225
food 82–3, 85, 88, 92–3
future scenarios 306
middle-class 9–10
over-consumption 13
social investment 313
contemplative consciousness 10, 47–8, 149, 151–64
contraceptives 210–11
cooperation 306, 307
Copenhagen Climate Change Summit (2009) 250, 281
coral reefs 26, 28–9
biodiversity change 105, 109–12, 114
diseases 111
Great Barrier Reef 261
corporate responsibility 217
corporations 13, 14, 169, 170, 220–2, 226, 329–30
business responses to tipping points 233–6, 237–9
leadership by business 213–19
political influence 328
Cox, Peter 264
crises 6, 7, 270, 301
contemplative consciousness during 161–2, 163
financial 189, 220, 221
critical thresholds 3, 19, 24, 286, 301, 302; see also thresholds
critical transitions 7, 108
cultural biodiversity 78–9
cultural keystone species 105, 118, 120
cultural politics of climate change 244–9
cultural theory 73–6
Currie, Mark 52n2
customer demand 234
dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) 24
Daoism 330
Davis, M. 272
De Beaugrande, R. 55, 59–60
De Man, Paul 53
De Sherbinin, A. 269, 271
De Soto, Hernando 199
death 152–3
deforestation 79, 97, 109, 110, 111
Amazon rainforest 115, 128–36, 139, 142–3, 264, 266, 271–2
UN policy 137
democracy 169, 232, 321
collaborative 315
decline in 308
food 84
participative 186
undermining of 311
denial 9, 13, 16, 169, 205, 280, 282, 292
Denmark 325
Derrida, Jacques 53, 59, 61
developing countries 5, 117, 283
food security 93, 99
media 251
public opinion on climate change 250
dialogue 291
discounting 177
discourse analysis 55
diseases 81, 105, 106, 108–9, 111, 118, 302
disequilibrium 10–11
disruptive innovation 237
diversification 136
Dobson, Andrew 119–20, 183–4, 316, 320–6
Dolan, Paul 323–4
Dolphin, T. 175, 178, 180
‘domino dynamics’ 25, 35
Douglas, Mary 73
Drèze, J. 83
droughts 28, 30, 35, 258
Amazon rainforest 80, 112, 128–9, 264
food security 94
Sahel 266–8, 270, 272
drylands 110
early warnings 36–8, 39, 241
adaptive governance 265
AMAZALERT project 265–6
biodiversity change 105, 120
earthquakes 242, 247, 252
economic crisis 116, 178, 192, 225, 232, 238, 307–8, 310–11, 327–8
economic factors
Amazon rainforest 135
food security 86, 90, 91
sustainability 188–9, 191–2, 195
(p.337)
economic growth 166, 175, 219
Amazon region 131, 132–3
food security 92
‘green growth’ 16, 193
see also growth
economics 175, 177, 178–9, 180, 195–8, 204
economy 82, 169, 196, 200, 256
‘green’ xv, 309
ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) 79
ecosystems xi, 108
biodiversity change 104–5, 107, 108–9, 119–20
ecosystem services 104, 105, 114, 119–20, 283
evaluating the well-being of 171
human-dominated 107
life-support processes 4, 78
‘payment for ecosystem service’ scheme 138
regime shifts 24
resilience 13
‘wicked problems’ xv
Ecuador 127, 132
Edwards, J. 96
egalitarian perspective 73, 75–6
Einstein, Albert 211
Ekins, Paul 12, 13–14, 19, 170, 188–93, 199
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 26, 30, 32, 33, 35
Elkington, John 18, 19, 170, 218, 223–8, 235, 313
emerging economies 308
Emissions Trading System (ETS) 192–3
endangered cultures 121
energy xi–xii, 205, 313–14
food-system activities 97
fossil fuels 328
future scenarios 306
growth in demand for 77
low-carbon infrastructure 283
policy solutions 230
renewable 330
entitlement 83, 84
environmental factors
business assumptions 238
food security 86
‘safe operating space’ 192
sustainability 188, 195
environmentalism 208, 254, 255
epidemics 111, 287
epidemiology 81
equilibrium 108
Ericksen, P.J. 91
ethics 321, 322, 324, 325
Ethiopia 118
European Convention on Human Rights 230
European Union (EU) 171, 231
AMAZALERT project 265–6
biofuels 94
Emissions Trading System 192–3
incomes 239
lobbying 78
public opinion on climate change 250
unemployment 308
eutrophication 11, 97
exchange processes 174
exchange rates 80, 134, 241
externalities 177–8
‘facilitating conditions’ 205–6
fairness 184, 263, 317, 324
Fairtrade products 206–7, 208
faith 150, 154, 155, 164, 165–7; see also religion
famine 83, 267
fatalistic perspective 74, 75–6, 81–2
fear 152, 163, 166, 205
feedback
adaptive governance 260
biodiversity change 108, 109
complex systems 292, 294
fertilizers 30, 93, 97, 119, 304
finance 166, 203, 241, 329
Amazon rainforest 136
new logic for capitalism 198–9, 200, 201
financial crisis 189, 220, 221
fires, forest 12, 128, 130, 138, 264, 265
fiscal approach 321–2, 325
fish products 77
fisheries 113, 117
Flannery, Tim 248
flexibility 8, 262, 263
flooding 30, 34, 260
impact on food system 95
Mumbai 242, 258, 268–71
Pakistan 18, 92, 191
Queensland 191
Foden, Giles 5, 8, 17, 47–8, 49–72, 74, 81, 245, 249, 254
Folke, C. 260, 262 (p.338)
food 13, 78, 81–103, 304
biodiversity 78–9, 117–18
concept of food security 83–5
environmental interactions with food systems 94–6, 97
food chain 91
food industry 77, 78
food-system activities 91–2, 96, 97
food wastage 96
fossil fuels 328
future scenarios 306
governance 96–100
local versus long-distance 206
policy 86–91, 93, 99, 100
scarcity 197, 312
threats to 301
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) 83, 85, 87, 88, 93, 100, 117–18
forecasting 9, 36–7, 82, 264
foresight 13, 190
Fowles, John 305
fracking 14
France 85
free markets 181–2, 328
Freeman, Laurence 10, 14, 19, 47–8, 149, 151–64, 182–3, 316
front and back loops 15, 261–2, 271
Fukushima nuclear accident (2011) 191, 252
Funtowicz, S.O. 246
future generations 135, 249
future scenarios 305–7
futures contracts 175
Gandhi, Mahatma 201
Gardner, Toby 11, 12, 15, 28, 79–80, 127–48
General Electric 218
Generation Investment Management 226
Genette, G. 70
GEO 5 (Global Environmental Outlook) 301
geo-engineering 39
geopolitics 9–10
glaciers 28, 35
Gladwell, Malcolm 24, 50, 65–6, 81–2, 287
GlaxoSmithKline 218
global circulation models (GCMs) 129
Global Environmental Change and Food Security (GECAFS) project 91, 95
global pervasiveness 246
global warming see climate change
globalization xii, 99
Globescan 250
God 166
‘golden goose’ arguments 255, 256
Goleman, Daniel 227
‘good news stories’ 18–19, 167
Goodland, R. 92
governance 4, 17, 192–3
adaptive 8, 258–76
Amazon rainforest 135–40, 143
boundaries 303–4
cooperative 315
food security 83, 96–100
global 226, 235
localism 185
‘polycentric’ 14, 329
social change 12–13
social organization 202
governments 236, 280, 317, 321, 331
business assumptions 238
difficulties dealing with tipping points 170–1, 229–32
local 209, 314, 315–16, 329
sustainability citizenship 325–6
Governors’ Climate and Forests Task Force 140
‘graphic facilitation’ 291
Great Barrier Reef 261
greed 166
‘green economies’ xv, 309
‘green growth’ 16, 193
Green Revolution 85, 93
greenhouse gases (GHGs) 177, 197, 288
Amazon rainforest 116
Copenhagen Summit 281
food contribution to 89, 92–3, 95–6, 97
Indian Summer Monsoon 29–30
projections for 327
transport 320
Greenland ice sheet (GIS) 25–7, 31, 32, 33–4, 35, 39, 277
Greenstock, Jeremy 209 (p.339)
Gregory, P.J. 94
Grint, Keith 209–10
growth
adaptive cycle 15, 261
exponential 10
‘green’ 16, 193
investment 175
political leaders’ emphasis on 196, 199
habitat loss 107, 108, 109, 119
habits 205
Haiti 242
happiness 152, 182, 201
Havel, Vaclav 201
Hegel, G.W.F. 53, 64
Heidegger, Martin 65, 154
Heilbronner, Robert 196
herbicides 119
hierarchical perspective 73, 75–6
Himalayan glaciers 26, 28, 35
Holling, C.S. 135
household flourishing 312
Howard, Patricia 8, 12, 78–9, 80, 104–26
Hulme, Mike 246, 249
human capital 181, 195, 199–200, 202, 203, 210
Human Development Report 302
human nature 13, 163, 322
human rights 302, 303
humanities 54
hunger 85, 88
Hunt, J.C.R. 54, 62
hurricanes 36
hysteresis 11
Iannucci, Armando 249
ice melting 16, 25–8, 33–5, 39, 277, 306
ICLEI 331
images 293–4, 295
incentives 226, 235, 310, 321–2, 325
incoherence 4–5
incomes 238–9, 304
India
food security 92, 95
‘governing region’ concept 14
media 250
middle-class consumption 9–10
Mumbai flood 242, 258, 268–71
Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) 26, 29–30
indigenous peoples 115, 117
individualistic perspective 73, 75–6
Indonesia 252
induced vulnerabilities 4, 13
inequalities 10, 189, 282, 304
informal markets 174, 181
infrastructure 271, 309, 310
‘lock-in’ 328
low-carbon 283
social 282, 283
Ingram, John 7, 8, 12, 13, 65, 77, 78, 81–103
‘inner eye’ 19
innovation
breakthrough 226–7
creative 292
disruptive 237
‘reverse’ 228
institutional fit 263
institutions
adaptation to climate change 302
adaptive governance 258, 259–60, 262–3
Amazon rainforest 140, 143
food security 83, 96–100
global 226, 235, 304–5
institutional lock-in 49, 180
political 171, 173, 186
scientific 272
self-reinforcing 331
insurance 174
interdependence 6, 152, 247, 260
interdisciplinarity 9, 12, 54, 79, 141–2, 248
interest rates 175–6, 177
inter-generational equity 135
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 15, 24, 31, 191, 246, 248–9, 250, 268
International Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology Development Knowledge (IAASTD) 85, 87
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) 309–10
International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) 280, 281, 282 (p.340)
internet 278–9, 315
Inuit 248
investment 175, 177, 178, 233, 310
local 315
social 312–13
sustainable technologies 329
Iraq War 189–90
irreversibility 24–5, 242, 286, 301, 317
irrigation 95, 97
Islam 330
islands 112–13, 120
‘islands of hope’ 244, 252, 307, 316, 317
Italy 250
Jackson, Tim 175, 180, 195, 200
Jakobson, R. 51, 57–8
Japan 190–1
Jayne, E. 59
jeopardy 244
Johnson, M. 63
journalism 277–9
justice 182, 183
Kahan, Dan 74–5, 281
Kalahari 121
Kavli conference (2011) xiii–xiv, 3, 47, 289
Keynes, John Maynard 196
keystone species 105, 118, 120
Kierkegaard, S.A. 64
Kingfisher 218
Klum, M. 301
Kramer, M.R. 218
Krugman, Paul 308
Krujit, Bart 266
Kübler-Ross, Elisabeth 205
Kurzweil, R. 10
lakes, eutrophication of 11
Lakoff, G. 63
land use change 30, 95, 97
Amazon region 134–5, 141, 142, 143, 271
boundaries 303
landscapes, tipping 17
Lang, Tim 7, 8, 12, 13, 65, 77, 78, 81–103
language 51, 52–4, 56, 59, 121, 162; see also metaphors
leadership 18, 169, 194–212
adaptive governance 260
by business 213–19
international 310
media 253–4
new logic for capitalism 198–201
NGOs 222
NIC report 197, 201
for sustainability 201–12
Leadley, P. 109–12
learning 262, 282, 292, 295
adaptive governance 258, 260, 262
Leclair, Tom 54
legal regimes 230–1
Limits to Growth (Meadows et al. 1972) 195
‘linear rational thinking’ 290
Lingard, Thomas 77, 170, 233–6, 313
linguistics 54, 57, 59, 62, 65
lobbying 78, 133, 171, 225, 235–6, 278, 310, 311, 327, 328
Local Agenda 21 315, 330–1
Local Enterprise Partnerships 208
local governments 209, 314, 315–16, 329
localism 5, 12, 18, 314–16
governance 185
need for sophisticated approach to 207, 208–9
sustainable 150
‘lock-in’ xiv, 4, 14, 317, 328
Copenhagen Summit 281
future scenarios 305, 306
institutional 49, 180
path dependency 328
politics of 307–11
productionist paradigm 88, 89
Long, Amanda 18, 19, 99, 170, 213–19, 313
Longa, V.M. 61
long-term approach 179, 186, 217, 329, 330
Machiavelli, Niccolò 204
Malthus, T.R. 85, 86
Mansfield, M. 250
markets 17, 19, 166, 169–70, 171, 173–87, 215, 317
climate change as market failure 201
comparison with politics 181–2
the future 174–9 (p.341)
market-based governance 192
neoliberal view 328
power transferred to 321
role of 221
see also corporations
Marks and Spencer 329
Martin, W. 60, 62
Marx, Karl 85, 86, 153, 196
Mason, Jeffrey 52, 53, 64
mathematics 6, 10, 24, 50, 55, 59
Max-Neef, Manfred 200
McEwan, Ian 244
media 243–57
change 249–53, 255
cultural politics of climate change 244–9
journalism 277–9
local 315
meditation 19, 156, 158, 159–60, 164
metalanguage 51
metanoia 156, 159
metaphors 16, 49, 52–3, 272
complexity 61–2
functions of 50
narrative and 69–70
revelatory nature of 285
as risk 62–3
science and 50–1
sensuality 64–5
separation and 64
social transformation 12–14
theories of metaphor 56–61
tipping landscapes 17
tipping points as 3, 5–8, 55–6, 63, 65–9, 70, 81–2, 165, 190, 285–6
methane hydrates 27–8
metonymy 57–8, 59, 60
middle class 9–10, 93
migration
Amazon region 80, 115, 116, 131, 133–4, 135
economic 170
food security 94
insupportable 312
of species 107–8, 113
Miliband, David xv
Miliband, Ed 196, 198, 199
Mill, John Stuart 196
mimesis 54
mindfulness 19
‘Mindspace’ 323
mitigation 39, 105, 270
modelling 9, 11, 12, 286–7
monitoring 8, 38, 262, 264
morality 207, 321, 322
mortality 152, 153
Mulgan, G. 313
multi-departmental initiatives 179–80
multi-scalar problems 295
Mumbai 242, 258, 268–71
Munang, R. 79
Nair, R.B. 62–3
narrative 49, 50, 52n2, 64, 69–70, 162, 165–6, 254
Nash, D. 175, 178, 180
National Intelligence Council (NIC) 197, 201, 203
natural capital 181, 195, 199–200, 203, 311
Natural Capital Committee 176, 177, 180
natural disasters 252; see also earthquakes; flooding
natural resources 165, 304
Amazon region 131, 132
economic growth 175
human well-being 302
nature 73–4, 199, 247
Neate, R. 77
Neiman, Susan 201–2
neoliberal markets 174
neoliberalism 88, 327, 328, 329
Nepal 95
networks 9, 185
adaptive governance 8, 260, 262
research 141–2
New Economics Foundation 312
new social movements 226
News Corporation 255
Niger 267–8
nitrogen cycle 97, 304
nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) 14, 222, 233–4
climate change 245
lobbying by 236
Sahel drought 267, 270
Norris, F.H. 55–6
Nowell-Smith, D. 65
‘nudge’ theory 82, 316, 321, 322–4, 325
Obama, Barack 327
obesity 88, 313 (p.342)
oceans
acidification 9, 28–9, 114, 303
ocean methane hydrates 26, 27–8
oxygen minimum zones 30–1
oil 14, 88, 93, 197
Olsson, P. 261
optimism 82, 227, 307, 310, 317
organic products 206, 207
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) 93
Origen 162
O’Riordan, Tim xiii–xvi, 3–20, 167, 173–87, 301–19
Ostrom, Elinor 329
Ott, Konrad 177
over-consumption 13
‘Oxfam doughnut’ 302–3, 304
ozone depletion 303
Pacific Islanders 248
Painter, James 250
Pakistan 18, 92, 191, 252
panarchy 11, 261–2
parables 162
Paragominas 138–9
‘parallel infrastructures’ 329, 330, 332
Parfitt, J. 96
Parkin, Sara 12, 18, 169, 171, 173, 194–212
partnerships 314, 315
Patagonia 329
path dependency 14, 17, 328
‘payment for ecosystem service’ scheme 138
Pereira, H.M. 107
permafrost 26, 27, 32, 222
Peru 127, 132
pessimism 81–2, 308–9
pesticides 97, 119
pests 11, 105, 106, 108–9, 118, 119
pharmaceutical industry 78
philanthropy 214
Philippines 121
philosophy 54, 57, 61, 64
phosphorus cycle 97, 303, 304
physical science 23
physics 10, 24, 55–6, 59
Pickett, K. 189
planetary boundaries 301–4
Plato 161
pluralities xii
Poincaré, H. 50
‘points’ 11
policy 230, 236, 256
Amazon rainforest 137–8, 140, 271–2
contemplative consciousness 161
enactment of 231
fiscal incentives 321–2, 325
food 86–91, 93, 99, 100
lack of coherence 180
lock-in 309–10
‘nudge’ theory 322–4, 325
see also regulation
policy elites 331
policymakers 4, 12, 13, 82, 328, 330
EU 308
food security 89, 91, 100
legislation 320
‘nudge’ theory 324
politicians xv, 185, 309, 328, 332
denial by 169
lack of confidence in 308
‘nudge’ theory 323
short-termism 179
views on capitalism 196, 199
politics 6, 169, 170–1, 185–6, 230
business influence on 328
climate change 248
comparison with markets 181–2
enactment of policy 231
failure of national 331
influence of markets on 173
journalism 278
of ‘lock-in’ 307–11
new kind of geopolitics 9–10
‘nudge’ theory 323
short-sighted 280
tipping points 277
polities 179–82
pollution
boundaries 303
food-system activities 97
taxes 310
threats to ecosystems 109
Polman, Paul 218, 329
‘polycentric governance’ 14, 329
population growth 16, 77, 304
Amazon region 131, 132–3, 135
emerging economies 308
Malthus on 85
neo-Malthusianism 312
Niger 268
Porter, M.E. 218 (p.343)
post-colonialism 248
poverty 270–1, 272, 302
power relations 17, 197
prayer 162
prices
Amazon region 133
food 88–9, 90, 93, 94
futures contracts 175
Prince’s Trust 308–9
Princeton University 210
privatization 309
Proambiente 138
productionist paradigm 87–9
Prospectus for Breakthrough Capitalism 228
prosperity 195, 201
protests 246
Proust, Marcel 213
prudence 182
Public Administration Committee (PAC) 180
public opinion 185–6, 221–2, 230, 243, 250
public ownership 310
Puma 329
Quebec 111
race relations 258, 259
radiative forcing 38, 39
rainfall xi
Amazon rainforest 127–9, 130
flooding 268, 269
Sahel drought 266–7
rainforests see Amazon rainforest
Ravetz, Joe 246, 289–97
Raworth, Kate 302
Reagan, Ronald 321
Recyclebank 227
recycling 324
Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) 137, 139, 140, 266
regime shifts 24
regulation 234, 236, 310, 320–1
Amazon rainforest 137, 140
business 213, 221, 310, 317
climate change 216
enlightened 170
legal regimes 230–1
markets 174
see also policy
‘relational visualization’ 291
release 15, 261
religion 150, 151, 157–8
‘ecological awakening’ 330
meditation 159–60
religious communities 329, 330
renewal 15, 261
reorganization 15, 261
resilience 5, 13, 177, 244, 259, 282
adaptive governance 258, 260, 261–2
Amazon rainforest 137–8, 139
biodiversity change 117–22
capacity building 100
developed countries 283
food security 78, 84
future scenarios 306–7
‘good news stories’ 18
human 114–16
livestock 199
localized 305, 307, 314
loss of 12
media coverage 250–1, 253, 254
as metaphor 55–6
Mumbai 270
Resilience Alliance 11, 316
responsibility 182, 184, 248, 292, 324
restorative redirection 5
‘reverse’ innovation 228
reversibility 24–5, 27, 28, 30, 270, 279
Revi, A. 268
rhetoric 53, 57
Richards, I.A. 62
Richards, P.D. 134
rights 83, 302
food security 87
local 282
sustainability citizenship 324
well-being 182
risk
cultural politics of climate change 246–7
cultural theory 75
food 84
markets 174
media coverage 244–5
metaphor as 62–3
Mumbai flood 270
private sector 220–1
risk assessment 31–8
risk avoidance 137
risk-reduction strategies 39
Rockström, J. 301
Rosenstock-Heussy, Eugen 202
Royal Institute for International Affairs 92
Royal Society 304
Russia 250, 325
Sachs, Jeffrey 311
‘safe operating space’ 183–4, 192, 301, 302–3, 304
Sahara 26, 110, 118 (p.344)
Sahel 26, 29, 110, 112, 258, 266–8, 270, 272
Sandel, Michael 183
Santa Fe Institute 11
Santos, Filipe Duarte 305
Sarkozy, Nicolas 88
Saussure, F. 59
scarcity 197, 312
Scheffer, M. 108
Scheffler, Samuel 207
Schelling, Tom 259
Schellnhuber, John 191
schools 184, 315
Schumacher, Ernst 316
Schumpeter, Joseph 196
science 4, 6, 47, 54, 55, 286
Amazon rainforest 140–2
attacks on 278
contemplative consciousness 149, 151, 157–8
food security 87
link with society 222
metaphor and 50–1
mortality 152
new engagement with 50
‘post-normal’ 24, 246
religion conflict with 157
scientific method 151, 154, 155, 159
sustainability 150
tipping point concept 190
Scott, Lee 234
sea-level rises
Atlantic thermohaline circulation 29
biodiversity change 113
ice melting 16, 27, 35, 39
impact on coral reefs 114
Mumbai 268
Pacific Islanders 248
Sears, Richard 73
security 32, 182, 330
Seldon, Anthony 19
self-command 183
self-esteem 182
self-interest 176, 179, 205, 322, 324, 329
self-knowledge 151–2
semantics 55, 60
Sen, A.K. 83
Sendzimir, J. 266–7, 270
Seram 118
Seregeldin, I. 199
shale-based oil 14
Shanahan, Mike 251
shared value 218
shares 176
‘sharing economy’ 239
Shell 70
Shirky, Clay 227
shocks 258–9, 262, 263, 272
short-termism 174, 176, 178, 179, 180, 186, 225, 230
Shove, Elizabeth 205
silence 155
Simms, Andrew 245
simplicity 154, 155
Sinclair-Wilson, Jonathan 242, 285–8
skittles 66–7
Smith, Adam 182–3, 196
Smith, Joe 9, 81, 241, 243–57, 258, 278, 317
social capital 180, 181, 195, 199–201, 203, 210, 311, 313
social change 12–14, 131, 141, 202–3, 209; see also change
social construction 17–18
social entrepreneurs 18–19, 208
social factors
food security 86, 90
sustainability 188, 189–90, 195
‘social foundation’ 302
social investment 312–13
social justice xiv, 177, 182
social marketing 215
social markets 181
social media 234
social movements 5, 226
social networks 9, 18, 259, 262, 315
social sciences 10, 55, 190
social systems 12–13, 23, 169, 194, 306; see also socio-economic systems
social tipping points 290, 291, 292
‘social-unlocking’ 14
society 82, 171, 207–8, 222; see also civil society
socio-economic markets 174
socio-economic systems 12–13, 188–93; see also social systems
soil conservation 138
soil erosion 30
Sontag, Susan 285
South Korea 250 (p.345)
Southwest North America 26, 30
Soviet Union, former 190, 192
space 17, 183–4, 192
Spain 250
species extinction 105, 106–7, 111, 112–13, 119, 120, 152–3
species ranges 107–8
spiritual dimension 149–50, 153, 154, 156, 159–60, 165
Steer, A. 199
Steffen, A. 252
Stern, Nicholas 201, 278
Stern Report (2007) 177, 256
stewardship 137, 261, 263
stillness 19, 155
stock markets 176, 241
Stockholm Resilience Centre 302–3
‘Stockholm syndrome’ 245
stories 17, 162, 254, 255
strategies 262
subsidies 226, 235–6, 310
substitution theory of metaphor 57, 60
Sukhdev, Pavan 310, 313
Sulston, J. 317
‘sunk costs’ 7, 14, 17
Sunstein, Cass 322
‘surprise’, preparation for 8, 262
sustainability
Amazon rainforest 137, 139
barriers to 178
Brundtland concept of 184
business case for 218
concept of 194–5
data collection 211
economic dimension 188–9, 192, 195, 197
environmental dimension 195
food security 87, 89, 99, 100
future scenarios 306
global standards 226
interventions 195–6, 197–8
leadership for 201–12
localism 315
long-term 186
‘nudge’ theory 324
social dimension 189–90, 195
sustainability science 150
transition to 320–6
virtue ethics and citizenship 184–5
well-being 314
sustainability citizenship 324–6
sustainable development xv, 82, 86, 135, 188, 328, 329
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 283, 311
system dynamics 10–11, 54, 62
‘system failures’ 16
systems theory 24, 49, 53, 62, 86
Taleb, Nassim Nicholas 74
taxes 226, 235, 310
Taylor, Matthew 18, 48, 73–6, 307, 316
technology 152, 165, 227, 239, 310
faith in 178
food security 86–7
future scenarios 305–6
ICT revolution 282
individualistic perspective 75
‘lock-in’ 14
social networking 18
sustainable 329
‘teleconnections’ 134
terriblisma 252
Terror Management Theory 152
Tesco 90
Thaler, Richard 322
Thatcher, Margaret 321
thermohaline circulation (THC) 26, 29, 32, 33
third sector 213–14, 216, 219
Thomas, D. 185
Thompson, E.P. 190
Thompson, Michael 73, 75
threshold conditions 7, 8, 259, 260
thresholds 11, 13, 14, 15, 303; see also critical thresholds
Tickell, Crispin xi–xii
timber extraction 128, 130, 139
time 17, 249
tipping elements 24, 25–31, 32–4, 35
tipping points
adaptive governance 258–76
Amazon rainforest 129, 131, 142
biodiversity 105, 108–16, 120
business responses to 233–6, 237–9
communicating 241–2
concept of xi, 3–4, 24–5, 76, 281
contemplative consciousness 151, 163, 164
cultural theory 73–4, 75, 76
definitions of 65–7, 188
early warning signs 36–8, 39, 241
economic 189
etymology of 65–9
food security 90–1
four propositions regarding 4–5
front and back loops 15
future scenarios 305–7
Gladwell’s thesis 24, 65–6, 81–2, 287
global perspective 23–46
‘good news stories’ 18–19 (p.346)
governments 229, 232
human behaviour 194, 212
literal meaning of 50–1
markets 174, 178
media coverage 243–57
meditation 159
as metaphors 3, 5–8, 55–6, 63, 65–9, 70, 81–2, 165, 190, 285–6
polities 179–81
private sector failure 220–2
risk assessment 31–8
social construction 17–18
socio-economic domain 12–13, 188, 191
spiritual dimension 149–50
unpredictability 304
use of the term 23, 47, 162, 245, 277–8
visual thinking and visualization 289–96
Toulmin, Camilla 48, 280–4, 316
trade 78, 99, 208
transformation see change
transpiration 110
transport
congestion charges 320
food 95, 97
fossil fuels 328
low-carbon infrastructure 283
Transport for London 227
Triandis, Harry 205
trifurcations 305
tropes 57
trophic levels 119, 120
tsunamis 36, 190–1, 247, 252
tundra 113
Turchin, P. 312
Tyszczuk, R. 245
uncertainty 4, 6, 32
adaptive cycle 272
Amazon rainforest 129
biodiversity change 105
cultural politics of climate change 246–7
fear of 163
‘irreducible’ 38
media coverage 244–5
science and humanities 54
‘wicked problems’ 210
unemployment 116, 228, 308–9, 328
Unilever 216, 218, 234, 329
unintended worsening 4
United Kingdom (UK)
belief–attitude–behaviour relationship 205
Commons Environment Committee 309
fiscal deficit 189
flooding 34
food-related GHG emissions 92
food security 85, 87, 89–90
food wastage 96
free markets 181
health-related expenditures 313
journalism 279
legal constraints 230–1
legislation 320–1
Local Enterprise Partnerships 208
Natural Capital Committee 176
‘nudge’ theory 322–3
organic products 207
political leaders 196
Public Administration Committee 180
Stern Review 256
United Nations (UN) 36, 99–100, 137, 231, 256, 302
United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20) (2012) xv, 193, 235, 236, 283, 301, 331
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 100, 178, 301
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 249
United States (US)
agriculture 138
biofuels 93, 94
carbon dioxide emissions 193
climate change 327
economic crisis 307–8
food-related GHG emissions 96
free markets 181
incomes 238–9
inner cities 325
journalism 279
lobbying 78
National Intelligence Council 197, 201, 203
public opinion 221–2
racial segregation 259
renewable energy 330
Southwest North America 26, 30
trade deficit 189
universities 203, 212
unpredictability 6–7, 31, 38, 304
urbanization 78, 272
Amazon region 132–3
food security 92, 94, 95
rural–urban migration 115
values 7, 158, 166, 184, 324, 325
vegetation 110, 131
Vergara, W. 115
virtue 182–5
visual thinking 289–97 (p.347)
Vonnegut, Kurt 223
vulnerability 8, 16
Amazon rainforest 130
biodiversity loss 118
ethics of 248
food security 95
indicators 38
induced vulnerabilities 4, 13
risk avoidance 137
Wal-Mart 234, 329
Ward, Barbara 281–2
water xi, 260, 313–14
Anglian Water 216–17
ecosystem-based adaptation 79
food-system activities 96, 97
freshwater availability 303
growth in usage 77
human rights 302
low-carbon infrastructure 283
scarcity 197
shortages 116, 216
threats to 301
wealth 195, 199, 201, 312
weather 94, 95, 110, 115; see also climate change; rainfall
well-being 171, 181, 212, 301, 312–14, 317
concept of 182
measurement of 311
new logic for capitalism 200, 201
planetary boundaries 302, 303, 304
sidelined by capitalist logic 199
Wells, Robin 308
West African Monsoon (WAM) 26, 29, 32, 33–4, 35
West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) 16, 26, 27, 32, 33–4, 35
‘wicked problems’ xv, 13, 150, 209–12, 254, 306
Wilkinson, R. 189
Williams, Rowan 167
Willis, K. 114
women 210–11, 302
Woodruff, D. 106
World Bank 85, 114, 115, 264, 302
World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) 226, 236
World Economic Forum 236
World Health Organization (WHO) 100
World Trade Organization (WTO) 78, 99, 231, 283
worst case scenario 34–5
Yedoma permafrost 26, 27, 32
Young Foundation 325
young people 228, 308–9, 315, 317
Zero Discharge of Hazardous Chemical agenda 227