Sudan’s Comprehensive Peace Agreement and Theories of Change
This chapter draws upon the contributions to this volume and adds additional reflections on peacemaking in Sudan and South Sudan, to draw out some patterns and general conclusions. It frames the analysis within the theories of change implicit in international and domestic Sudanese approaches to peacemaking. The principal argument is that peace processes should be seen as an extension of politics, characterized by strategic ambiguity, pursuing parallel tracks, and positioning for future opportunities that cannot be identified in advance. By contrast, international peacemakers’ theories of change are structured to achieve a singular unified settlement, or to pursue external interests. Sudanese/South Sudanese civic actors’ strategies go beyond ‘inclusion’ to agenda setting and generating coalitions for change. These differences are illustrated with reference to how the Comprehensive Peace Agreement managed its core issues (economy and security) and its marginal or excluded issues (Abyei, the ‘two areas’ and Darfur).
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